The method
How it works
The Alien Edge is an AI horse racing tips app for Australian racing. It looks for value: horses the form says are better than their price. Here is how, in plain words.
1. Every runner is scored on form
Each morning the model reads every Australian race on the day's card. Every runner gets a score built from recent form, distance and track record, the track condition, barrier, weight, class, likely speed and pace, barrier trials, and the strike rates of the jockey, the trainer and the two together.
2. Scores become a win chance
The scores across a field are turned into a chance of winning for each horse, so the whole race adds up to 100%.
3. The market gets the same treatment
The TAB price for each runner is turned into the market's chance, with the bookmaker's margin taken out so the comparison is fair.
4. Value is where we rate a horse above the market
The edge is the gap between our chance and the market's. A horse only makes a list when the model rates it clearly higher than its price suggests. If the edge is too thin or the race is too chaotic to read, the model steps back and leaves the race alone.
5. Picks are locked and recorded
Selections are locked before the races and stored the moment they are made. Results are settled from official finishing positions at TAB prices and published on the results page, winners and losers alike.
The four lists
The Alien 5
The core daily card: the five strongest value-and-form picks across the day's Australian racing, locked every morning. This is the longest-running list, with a public record since July 2026.
Gold Locks
The strongest edges of the day. A runner has to pass a stricter set of tests on both form and price before it becomes a Gold Lock, so there are far fewer of them.
Mothership Transmission
Members' on-air picks, sent live during the day as markets settle and late value appears.
The Alien Sniper
The scope hunts the whole card for the single sharpest value-and-form pick, and the Sniper board records each one.
How results are counted
Every pick is counted as 1 unit to win and 1 unit to place at TAB prices, so 2 units are staked on each. Profit and ROI are in units after stakes. Scratchings are refunded and left out. Nothing is removed after the race.
See every pick on the results page, or today's on the live recap.
No model wins every race. The aim is a long-run edge, and losing runs happen. Selections are opinions only, never financial advice.
18+ only. Gamble responsibly. For free, confidential support call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
See today's picks before the jump
Members see every list live, with race alerts five minutes out.
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How it works · FAQ
Questions? Email hello@alienedge.ai